Brookhaven, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

871
FXUS64 KJAN 191444
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
944 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Overall, the near term forecast is on track for this update and
no significant adjustments were needed. As previously discussed,
increasing anticyclonic flow will tend to limit convective
rainfall coverage this afternoon and contribute to higher heat
stress levels. No changes are planned to the ongoing heat
graphics/messaging. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Today and tonight: Ridging surface and aloft will increase over our
region from the southeast through the period. This will result in
less coverage of convection and warmer temperatures over much of the
CWA. As compared to Friday, the greatest rain chances will be over
our northeast today vs the south Friday. Warmest temperatures will
be across the south and west today vs the northwest Friday. Our
abnormally moist airmass will remain in place and combine with the
hot temperatures to result in heat index values near 105F across the
south and west today. A "Limited" graphic for heat stress has been
posted as heat related illnesses will be possible especially with
prolonged exposure to the heat today. Our northeast will see lower
temperatures due to the higher rain chances and associated cloud
cover. The rain chances will show a distinct diurnal trend again
today. /22/

Sunday through Friday...Strong high pressure aloft will build west
into the region, & take a firm hold of the weather across the
forecast area through the mid & extended portions of the forecast.
The primary focus during this time will be the heat that`ll grip the
forecast area. Each day throughout the new week, highs will steadily
warm from the middle 90s to the upper 90s, with some locations
potentially reaching the century mark. Unfortunately, no change in
the very humid airmass across the region is expected, as dew points
each afternoon struggle to mix out of the middle 70s at best. This
will yield afternoon heat index values climbing to and above 106F
each day across much of the area, with little relief from the heat &
oppressive humidity expected at night.

Therefore, it`s likely each day during this time period that a "Heat
Advisory" will be needed for much of, if not all of, the forecast
area.  It`s also possible that some portions of the area may see
significant heat stress come mid and late week, with heat indices
climbing above 110F.  As a result, an "Excessive Heat Warning" could
be hoisted for portions of the area as well during the work week.

Rain chances will remain diurnally driven, but will overall lessen
across the area.  Eventually these will become confined to mainly
eastern and southern portions of the area, on the outer periphery of
the aforementioned high. Otherwise, only isolated showers and
storms can be expected. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Local radars suggest -SHRA wl come in vcty of the northern TAFs
this morning before scattered coverage of TSRA develop this aftn.
MVFR/IFR cigs wl prevail across the northern TAF sites until
after 15Z before improving to VFR. Otherwise, VFR conds will
prevail through the TAF period cntrl and south. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  75  95  75 /  30  10  10   0
Meridian      93  73  95  75 /  20  10  20   0
Vicksburg     91  75  95  75 /  40  10  10   0
Hattiesburg   95  75  97  76 /  30  10  20   0
Natchez       92  74  94  74 /  40  10  10   0
Greenville    90  75  95  76 /  40  10  10   0
Greenwood     90  75  94  76 /  50  10  20   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/22/19/